European supervolcano may be active again

A long-dormant supervolcano beneath the city of Naples, Italy, is showing signs of life,  a recent study in the journal Nature Communications reports.

The volcanic area — known as Campi Flegrei — is a large mix of steam, boiling mud, and smaller volcanoes that have sat dormant for hundreds of years. While the geological structure has become a popular tourist destination, in recent years the fiery formation has shown signs of activity — so much so, that a team of Italian researchers believes it may erupt once again.

Since 2005, the volcano has been undergoing uplift caused by phenomena known as "bradyseisms," — in which the surface of the volcano gets pushed up by magma underneath it. This process has allowed researchers to figure out the eruption threshold of the gases and fluids within the craters.

"Hydrothermal rocks, if heated, can ultimately lose their mechanical resistance, causing an acceleration towards critical conditions," said lead author Giovanni Chiodini, a researcher at Italy's National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology in Bologna, according to The Christian Science Monitor.

Campi Flegrei last erupted in 1538. Then, it expelled so much material, it created a brand new mountain known as Monte Nuovo. However, its biggest eruption occurred almost 40,000 years ago. That blast was so large it may have led to a volcanic winter that contributed to the demise of the Neanderthals.

While a modern explosion would likely not be as big as past events, it would still threaten some 500,000 people that live around the area.

While the study is concerning, researchers say that there is still a lot of uncertainty. Volcanic eruptions are very hard to predict because volcanoes' active lifespans go back hundreds of thousands of years and involve processes that occur deep underground. So there is a chance that Campi Flegrei could fizzle out before reaching maximum pressure.

"In general, unfortunately, volcanology is not a precise science," Chiodini wrote to The Washington Post. "We have many uncertainties and long-term provisions are at the moment not possible! For example, the process that we describe could evolve in both directions: toward pre-eruptive conditions or to the finish of the volcanic unrest."

Even so, there is enough activity at the site that researchers believe it is important to watch the volcano's activity carefully in the coming weeks.

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